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type="text/css"></style> <div id="ct" class="ct2 wp cl"> <div class="mn"> <div class="bm_haa cl"> <div class="bm_h cl"> <a href="http://www.oecr.com/portal.php?mod=rss&catid=57" class="y xi2 rss" target="_blank" title="RSS">订阅</a><h1 class="xs2">文章</h1> </div></div> <div class="kjkjb"> <div class="bm vw" style="margin-bottom:0;"> <div class="h hm"> <div class="zxtoux"><img src="http://www.oecr.com/uc_server/avatar.php?uid=115533&size=small" /></div> <h1 class="ph">日本人眼中的中国电动车前景 </h1> <p class="xg1"> 时间：2011-2-22 11:52<a class="zz" href="home.php?mod=space&uid=115533">作者：娆娆</a> 阅读<em id="_viewnum">(1226)</em> 评论: 0</p> <div class="zxfb" ><a href="http://www.oecr.com/portal.php?mod=rss&catid=57" class="y xi2 rss" target="_blank" title="RSS">订阅</a></div> </div> <!--[diy=diysummarytop]--><div id="diysummarytop" class="area"></div><!--[/diy]--> <div class="s"> <div class="ss"><div><span>导读： </span>相比之下，中国目前确实没有竞争力与之相匹敌的主流电动轿车和动力电池技术，很有可能出现市场被逐步蚕食的危险。希望笔者的这种担心只是杞人忧天。</div> </div> <!--[diy=diysummarybottom]--><div id="diysummarybottom" class="area"></div><!--[/diy]--> <div class="d"> <!--[diy=diycontenttop]--><div id="diycontenttop" class="area"></div><!--[/diy]--> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="vwtb"><tr><td id="article_content">2012年后的中国市场上，当中国政府专门针对本土电动车企的保护及优惠政策到期后，中外所有品牌的电动车将不再是井水不犯河水，而是享受同样的市场待遇。那时，中外电动轿车还能平起平坐吗？ <BR><BR>采访中，2位中国民营车企和央企高管不约而同地表示：“补贴取消后，我们将以低价策略争取低端市场。”笔者不禁万分诧异，这话听着相当耳熟。想起来了，近年的各种峰会和<a href="http://bbs.oecr.com" target="_blank" class="relatedlink">论坛</a>上听的最多的一句话：“传统汽车时代，我们由于起步晚，技术落后太多，为了与海外车企竞争，只能实行低价低端策略。但在新能源汽车时代，中外整车及电池厂商将处于同一起跑线上。”没想到，说归说，做归做。新一轮起跑刚要开始，又有自主品牌厂商甘愿以价格战打低端市场了。 <BR><BR>我们来看看市场的现实情况： <BR><BR>目前，全球最热门的经济型、量产化纯电动汽车日产LEAF（中国名“聆风”），续航里程为120-160公里。笔者2010年试驾时感觉操控灵活，乘坐舒服。整车价不到22万元人民币，减去政府对电动车的优惠后，大约17万元多。 <BR><BR>通用雪佛来Volt插电混合增程车的综合续航里程为630公里，在纯电动模式下的续航里程仅约60公里。整车价不到27万元人民币，减去政府对电动车的优惠后，大约22万元多。 <BR><BR>两者各有优势，但LEAF似乎更大一些。由于没有试驾过Volt，无法对其发表看法。LEAF与中国现有几个自主品牌电动车型的价格相当，但是各方面性能更强。LEAF动力电池采用锰酸锂三元<a href="http://material.oecr.com" target="_blank" class="relatedlink">材料</a>，容量、体积、安全性都有保证。在全球量产，保证了一定的成本优势，也积累了更多的经验。因此，电动轿车中对自主品牌威胁最大的当属日产的LEAF！ <BR><BR>日企在这方面是天才，就像当年<a href="http://electronic.oecr.com" target="_blank" class="relatedlink">电子</a>表将普通消费者一夜之间就带进了“低成本、精确报时”时代那样。 <BR><BR>顺便说个细节，LEAF行驶时，车内几乎感觉不到电机的噪音，而中国产的几款电动车内，则可明显听到电机的噪音。 <BR><BR>相比之下，中国目前确实没有竞争力与之相匹敌的主流电动轿车和动力电池技术，很有可能出现市场被逐步蚕食的危险。希望笔者的这种担心只是杞人忧天。 <BR><BR>中国厂商的生存之道 <BR><BR>目前，日本厂商的商业模式是，整车厂商如丰田、本田、日产等与电池系统厂商合资开发并覆盖整个供应链，形成对其他竞争对手的全面优势。还有一种商业模式是互补型联合研发，整车厂商掌握电池系统与集成的关键技术，2、3家合作的电池厂商各自开发所擅长的技术。 <BR><BR>另外，长期来看，那些能够提供从材料、电芯、电池组到整车的解决方案，掌握各种部件集成，及电池系统与储能系统电化学技术的新型厂商将最为成功。中国的比亚迪就属于这种模式，从锂矿资源、材料、电池、IGBT等重要的电子部件、储能系统技术到整车，准备全部自己开发。巴菲特坚定看好比亚迪，可能也就是基于这方面的理由。 <BR><BR>这无疑是新能源汽车厂商正在探索的一种可能成功之路，但不少专业人士对比亚迪的资金和综合技术实力表示了质疑。因为包括丰田、通用在内的实力雄厚的厂商都没有，或不敢有这种“吃独食”的想法。比亚迪今后将面临着难以想象的困难。 <BR><BR>也许大多数中国厂商更应该在前两种模式中选择一条适合自身的生存之道。整车厂商间、整车与电池厂商间、电池厂商间需要精诚合作，而不是相互诋毁。允许不同的模式存在，这样，生存空间才会更多、更大。 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