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type="text/css"></style> <div id="ct" class="ct2 wp cl"> <div class="mn"> <div class="bm_haa cl"> <div class="bm_h cl"> <a href="http://www.oecr.com/portal.php?mod=rss&catid=62" class="y xi2 rss" target="_blank" title="RSS">订阅</a><h1 class="xs2">文章</h1> </div></div> <div class="kjkjb"> <div class="bm vw" style="margin-bottom:0;"> <div class="h hm"> <div class="zxtoux"><img src="http://www.oecr.com/uc_server/avatar.php?uid=54876&size=small" /></div> <h1 class="ph">最愚蠢十大科技预言 </h1> <p class="xg1"> 时间：2011-1-5 22:16<a class="zz" href="home.php?mod=space&uid=54876">作者：update</a> 阅读<em id="_viewnum">(1720)</em> 评论: 0</p> <div class="zxfb" ><a href="http://www.oecr.com/portal.php?mod=rss&catid=62" class="y xi2 rss" target="_blank" title="RSS">订阅</a></div> </div> <!--[diy=diysummarytop]--><div id="diysummarytop" class="area"></div><!--[/diy]--> <div class="s"> <div class="ss"><div><span>导读： </span>国外媒体评出了有史以来最愚蠢的十大科技预言，其中苹果CEO史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs)有关在线音乐订阅模式的言论上榜。</div> </div> <!--[diy=diysummarybottom]--><div id="diysummarybottom" class="area"></div><!--[/diy]--> <div class="d"> <!--[diy=diycontenttop]--><div id="diycontenttop" class="area"></div><!--[/diy]--> <table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="vwtb"><tr><td id="article_content">这十条预言是：<br><br>1.“电话”有太多缺陷，不能被视为一种通讯工具。——美国西部联合电报公司内部备忘录，1876年。<br><br>2.我认为全球计算机市场的规模是5台。——托马斯·沃森(Thomas Watson)，IBM董事长，1943年；“全球复印机市场的规模至多为5000台。”——IBM高管致施乐创始人信函，1959年。<br><br>3.ENIAC拥有18000个真空管，重达30吨；未来的计算机也许只需要1000个真空管，重量可能为1.5吨。——《大众<a href="http://machine.oecr.com" target="_blank" class="relatedlink">机械</a>》(Popular Mechanics)，1949年3月。<br><br>4.我告诉你们，卡带式录像机之于美国电影产业和公众，就相当于波士顿杀人狂之于单独在家的妇女。——杰克·瓦伦蒂(Jack Valenti)，美国电影协会主席，众议院证词，1982年。<br><br>5.不要出售你们持有的煤气公司股份。电力<a href="http://light.oecr.com" target="_blank" class="relatedlink">照明</a>没有未来。——约翰·亨利·派珀(John Henry Pepper)教授，维多利亚时代名人科学家，1870年代。<br><br>6.电视机在六个月后就难以守住它开拓的任何市场。人们将很快对每晚盯着一个胶合板盒子感到厌烦。——达利·扎努克(Darryl Zanuck)，二十世纪福克斯公司制片人，1946年。<br><br>7.电视的问题是人们不得不盯着一个屏幕看，而普通美国人没有时间做这件事。——《纽约时报》，1939年。<br><br>8.以订阅模式购买音乐会导致破产。我认为你可以将《Second Coming》这首歌纳入订阅模式，但这有可能失败。——史蒂夫·乔布斯，苹果CEO，《滚石》杂志，2003年12月3日。<br><br>9.飞机是有趣的玩具，但不具备军事价值。——费迪南德·福煦(Ferdinand Foch)元帅，法国高级军事学院战略学教授。<br><br>10.无线音乐盒不具备可以想见的商业价值。谁会为一段不针对任何人特别送出的信息而付费呢？——大卫沙诺夫公司(Associates of David Sarnoff)回信答复投资无线电的问题，1921年。</td></tr></table> <!--[diy=diycontentbottom]--><div id="diycontentbottom" class="area"></div><!--[/diy]--> <script src="data/cache/home.js?eOg" type="text/javascript"></script> <div id="click_div"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="atd"> <tr><td> <a href="http://club.oecr.com/home.php?mod=spacecp&ac=click&op=add&clickid=1&idtype=aid&id=1479&hash=20a14d0f9423b09a218f92cea3869ee2&handlekey=clickhandle" id="click_aid_1479_1" onclick="showWindow(this.id, this.href);doane(event);"> <div class="atdc"> <div class="ac1" style="height:25px;"> <em>1</em> </div> </div> <img src="static/image/click/jidan.gif" alt="" /><br 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